Fed Rate Cut 2025: US Treasury at 4.06%, Indian Bond Yields Up to 6.49%

The US Federal Reserve has initiated its first rate cut since December 2024, reducing the benchmark by 25 basis points to 4–4.25%. Markets widely expected the decision itself. Along with the cut, the Fed also signalled the possibility of two more reductions later this year. Policymakers said the step is aimed at supporting growth, noting that risks to jobs are rising even as inflation remains above target.

On September 18, the 10-year benchmark bond yield crept higher by 2 basis points to 6.49%, following the spike in US treasury yields, which inched higher from 4.04% to 4.06%. Although the change is marginal, it highlights how closely Indian debt markets track changes in US monetary policy.

For Indian investors and traders, the Fed’s decision signals a period of caution. Though declining US rates would reduce global liquidity pressures, the rise in bond yields indicates that volatility in global markets still weighs on sentiment.

Impact of Fed Rate Cut on India

The Fed’s policy decisions rarely stay confined to the US. They have an impact on global markets, including India. This recent 25 bps rate cut has a few significant implications:

• When US yields rise, Indian bonds often follow, as global investors rebalance portfolios.
• A more accommodative US interest-rate environment tends to favour flows into emerging markets such as India. But with US treasuries still yielding relatively high returns,  the impact is mixed.
• Currency flows may also be involved. Higher bond yields often put pressure on the rupee, which in turn can affect inflation and borrowing costs at home.
• For both debt and equity markets, the Fed’s cautious language indicates that while growth support is one thing to look for, inflation remains a concern.

Market Reaction to Indian Bond Yields

The immediate response in India was felt in the bond market, where the 10-year benchmark yield ticked up to 6.49% from 6.47% the previous day. While the increase was small, traders pointed out that it reflects the strong linkage between Indian debt markets and global signals.

Equity markets also reflected caution. Both Sensex and Nifty opened flat to slightly lower, tracking global cues after the Fed’s move. Investors are weighing the positives of easier global liquidity against the risk of persistent volatility in bond yields and currencies.

For the participants in debt markets, the attention now is on whether foreign portfolio inflows (FPIs) accelerate as the Fed goes ahead with its anticipated rate cuts. Experts say that although India remains a preferred destination, the relative value of US treasuries will continue to influence flows into emerging markets.

Final Note

For now, the Fed cut can relieve global liquidity tensions, but increasing yields and currency make investors cautious. Much will be determined by how promptly the Fed acts on its envisaged two more cuts this year, and how global risk appetite develops.

For the Indian market, the future lies in striking a balance between global cues and robust domestic fundamentals. The investors will be observing not only bond yields but also foreign flows. Also, they must keep watch on the stability of the rupee and inflationary trends to measure the actual impact of the Fed’s move.

Source: MoneyControl

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