The Central banks around the globe are considering rate cuts, as inflation is easing and the fear of recession looming around major economies. In RBI MPC meeting of August kept the rbi repo rate unchanged with a 4:2 majority. RBI’s Governor Mr. Shaktikanta Das said that the inflation has been coming down across the globe significantly and thus central banks are considering rate cuts in the upcoming months. He also commented that many countries have already started slashing rates to fight recession.
Key Highlights of RBI MPC Meeting
In this MPC meeting of RBI, the gdp growth has been forecasted to be 7.2% for the entire FY2024-25 and the quarterly estimates are as follows –
- For Q1 – 7.1%
- For Q2 – 7.2%
- For Q3 – 7.3%
- For Q4 – 7.2%
In this meeting the estimates for CPI inflation has been also discussed. The estimates for CPI inflation in India for FY2025 has been 4.5% which has been again broken down according to the quarterly estimates as –
- Q2 – 4.4%
- Q3 – 4.7%
- Q4 – $.3%
Food Inflation – Cause of Worry
While the CPI inflation is not the worry of the government, the food inflation is as it has a weight of around 46% in the metric currently. The persistent high prices of food is pushing the entire economy upward and possess real threat to the economy. Until and unless the food inflation gets under control, RBI to remain cautioned. Already in the month of June, the headline inflation went up to 5.1% driven mainly by food prices even when fuel products and components displayed deflationary signals.
Forex Reserve of RBI
The central bank’s governor also indicated towards the forex reserves at all-time highs with foreign direct investments doubling its way into the Indian markets. As of 2 August 2024, the foreign exchange reserve of the country reached $675 billion, which is one of the highest until date. The two-way liquidity adjustment facility that the central bank offered in June and July helped in aligning the rbi repo rate with the overnight interest rates.
Proposed Public Repository for Digital Lending
Since there is a rise in the number of unauthorized lending platforms which are duping customers, RBI has proposed a public repository for tackling this issue. The entities, which are offering digital lending services, must report and enroll themselves with RBI so that it can keep an eye on them. Another positive change that has been brought in by the RBI is that now per transaction limit is ₹ 5 lakh compared to previous ₹ 1 lakh for UPI-based tax payments.
Aid to financial Sector
To keep the financial sector healthy and sound, the central bank has been asking NBFCs and banks to take proper measures to boost the operations.
Economic Outlook by RBI
RBI’s governor anticipates the headline inflation to ease from the third quarter of FY25. Even though inflation has been a concern, but he also said that as the gdp growth is stable and resilient, the central bank could focus particularly on curbing inflation. He expects the economy to enter into a phase of sustained growth once the inflation is controlled. He also signaled towards a pivot in the fiscal policies in the coming months as the tenure for the monetary policy committee is nearing its end in the month of October.
Wrapping up
While the market is filled with a rbi repo rate cut expectations but RBI’s stance on keeping the rate unchanged for this time has real underlying concerns related to food inflation. However, it is soon expected to ease further and rate cuts can be seen in the near-term.
Source: Businesstoday
______________________________________________________________________________________
Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks; read all the related documents carefully before investing.