RBI Projects 6.6% Economic Growth for Current Year

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Sunday in Mumbai that the government was not looking to revise its Budget estimates at this stage. Speaking at a business leadership event, she pointed to fiscal buffers built into the Budget to handle pressure from geopolitical tensions, higher import costs, and uneven rainfall across the country.

Why the Government Is Not Revisiting Budget Estimates

Sitharaman said the government had already provided for possible external shocks while preparing the Budget. Her comments came against the backdrop of renewed West Asian tensions, higher risk insurance premiums for ships passing through conflict zones, and the possibility of rising import costs.

She said buffers were in place for oil and fertiliser imports, including support that has kept fertiliser available to farmers at unchanged prices since COVID.

What the Budget Buffer Is Designed to Cover

The pressure points Sitharaman listed feed directly into India’s import bill and price outlook. The Finance Minister said the Budget had room to manage:

• Higher crude import costs if global energy prices rise
• Costlier fertiliser procurement while maintaining farmer support prices
• Increased risk insurance premiums for vessels moving through war zones
• Supply disruptions linked to ongoing geopolitical developments

How Monsoon Conditions Add to Domestic Price Pressures

Sitharaman said inflation could not be viewed only as an imported problem. While global energy, shipping, and fertiliser costs matter, domestic weather conditions can independently push prices higher. She referred to the El Niño effect, with rainfall turning uneven across the country, including excessive rain in some areas and shortfalls in others.

What High-Frequency Indicators Show About Growth

The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy to expand 6.6% in the current financial year. Sitharaman said the growth momentum remained broad-based, citing a range of activity trackers that continue to reflect movement across the economy.

Final Outlook: Private Investment Highlights

The Finance Minister said industry investment had begun to improve and described the numbers as encouraging. She added that businesses were committing capital to sectors considered critical to India’s Atmanirbhar Viksit Bharat agenda.

Sitharaman also invited the industry to raise any concerns or requests for further facilitation directly with the government. She said the government sees private capital expenditure as strengthening but remains open to feedback on bottlenecks.