Today, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised the entire nation with its aggressive rate cuts to propel economic growth. In today’s rbi mpc meeting, which is the second bi-monthly RBI monetary policy meeting in FY26, the governor of the central bank, Sanjay Malhotra, announced a whopping 50 bps cut in the repo rate, which is being lauded by the entire stock market as well. Nifty and Sensex are up by almost 1%, with most of the sectoral indices in the green.
Two-way Rate Cut
While a slash in the repo rate was expected by the people, however, hardly anyone expected the RBI to make such a bold move to slash it down from 6% to 5.5% directly, that too when this is the third rate cut in a row. What is more surprising is the 100-bps cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). Mr. Malhotra also announced that MPC has changed the policy stance to ‘Neutral” from the previous meeting’s “Accommodative” stance.
Since February 2025, the RBI has cut 100 bps of repo rate, which has accelerated growth in the economy; however, at the same time, the central bank has been left with little room for further reductions.
The 100-bps reduction in the CRR will be implemented in four tranches, taking the CRR to 3% from its current 4% level. This will happen on 6 September, 4 October, 1 November, and 29 November, and 25 bps will be reduced every time.
Inflation Forecast
In this RBI MPC meeting, CPI inflation has been forecasted for FY26, and it has been reduced from 4% predicted earlier to 3.7% now. CPI Inflation projections for each of the quarters are as follows –
| Quarters | Current Forecast | Previous Forecast |
| Q1FY26 | 2.9% | 3.6% |
| Q2FY26 | 3.4% | 3.9% |
| Q3FY26 | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Q4FY26 | 4.4% | 4.4% |
Retail inflation has already been down to 3.16%, the slowest in the past 6 years, even down from February and March when it was at 3.61% and 3.34% respectively. The inflation has also been reduced from the corresponding month in the previous fiscal, when it was 4.83%.
One of the primary reasons for this massive repo rate cut is inflation coming down within the RBI’s target. It is further expected to decline as forecasted by the RBI.
Growth Forecast
With the previous rate cuts and slowing down of inflation, the economy of India grew at 7.4% in the previous three months since March 2025, while a 6.5% growth was recorded for the entire FY25. It has been anticipated in this MPC meet that the GDP growth rate for the entire FY26 will be at 6.5%, and quarterly it will be as follows –
| Quarters | Current Forecast |
| Q1FY26 | 6.5% |
| Q2FY26 | 6.7% |
| Q3FY26 | 6.6% |
| Q4FY26 | 6.3% |
Impact of the Rate Cuts and Outlook
While the cut in the repo rate in the previous MPC sessions, already inflicted growth in the country, and also inflation is under check now. However, the growth could have been higher, and also, for the coming months, the geopolitical tensions will weigh on the growth of the nation.
On the other hand, the 100-bps CRR cut can release liquidity up to ₹2.5 trillion, which will add to the ₹9.5 trillion infusion by the RBI in January. All these efforts are to keep the banking system in a surplus mode and infuse economic growth.
Source: Mint
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