Russia’s Oil Exports Could Support India Amid the Middle East Oil Crisis

Russia may redirect crude shipments to India as the Iran conflict disrupts energy flows in the Middle East, according to industry sources cited by Reuters.

Around 9.5 million barrels of Russian crude are currently on vessels near Indian waters. These cargoes could reach Indian refineries within weeks. The potential diversion comes as tensions threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes.

The situation has raised concerns about a possible oil supply crisis in India if disruptions continue.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Raises Supply Risks for India

About 40% of India’s crude imports move through this narrow shipping corridor. With refiners processing nearly 5.6 million barrels per day, any disruption in the passage could affect supply chains.

Industry sources indicated that India’s crude inventories cover roughly 25 days of demand, while stocks of refined fuels such as gasoline, gasoil and liquefied petroleum gas remain limited.

Russia, India Oil Imports May Increase Amid Supply Shock

Russia has indicated it can increase crude shipments to India if supplies from the Middle East are disrupted.

Industry sources say Moscow could meet up to 40% of India’s crude requirements if needed. Tankers already positioned near Indian waters could allow quicker deliveries.

India’s purchases of Russian crude declined earlier this year. Imports fell to about 1.1 million barrels per day in January, the lowest level since November 2022. Russia’s share of India’s oil imports dropped to 21.2% during that period.

However, the share reportedly rose again to around 30% in February.

India Energy Security Concerns Intensify

The ongoing conflict has renewed concerns about India’s energy security.

India relies heavily on imported crude. Nearly half of its oil imports come from the Middle East. This makes the country vulnerable to regional supply disruptions.

Compared with China, India also holds smaller crude storage reserves. This increases exposure to sudden supply shocks.

Energy Geopolitics Shifts Global Oil Trade Patterns

Russian crude has traded at a discount since the Ukraine war began in 2022. Traders say the discount could narrow if global supply tightens and demand for alternative barrels increases.

Russia has also signalled that it could supply liquefied natural gas to India after Qatar temporarily halted production amid the conflict.

Oil Price Impact and Asia Oil Demand Outlook

India and China together account for a large share of Asia’s oil demand. Any prolonged disruption in shipping routes could affect regional supply patterns.

The United States has also indicated that naval escorts could be deployed to help protect tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Conclusion

Russia’s willingness to divert crude shipments highlights the shifting dynamics of global oil trade.

As tensions in the Middle East persist, India may rely on diversified suppliers to mitigate risks from oil supply disruptions and maintain stable energy flows.

Source: https://www.ndtv.com

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