S&P Global Predicts: India on Track to Become 2nd Largest Economy in Asia by 2030

Currently, the United States proudly holds the title of the world’s largest economy, with a staggering GDP of USD 25.5 trillion, contributing a quarter to the global GDP. Following closely is China, the second-largest economy, boasting a GDP of approximately USD 18 trillion, which equates to 17.9% of the world’s GDP. Japan currently secures the third position with a GDP of USD 4.2 trillion, closely followed by Germany with a GDP of USD 4 trillion.

Key Highlights

  1. India’s GDP by 2030 is projected to reach an impressive USD 7.3 trillion, marking a significant leap from its current position as the world’s fifth-largest economy.
  2. S&P Global predicts a rapid economic expansion for India throughout 2023 and 2024, fueled by robust domestic demand.
  3. With a stellar 7.8% growth in the April-June quarter, India has firmly established itself as the fastest-growing major economy.
  4. The surge in foreign direct investment over the last decade underscores India’s promising long-term economic prospects, attributed to its youthful demographics and rising urban household incomes.
  5. India’s nominal GDP is expected to soar from USD 3.5 trillion in 2022 to USD 7.3 trillion by 2030, surpassing Japan and securing its position as the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region.
  6. By 2022, India’s GDP had already exceeded that of the UK and France, with further projections indicating it will surpass Germany by 2030.

Driving Factors for India’s GDP Growth

Middle-Class Driving Consumption 

S&P Global emphasizes several key growth drivers supporting India’s promising economic outlook. India’s burgeoning middle class, accompanied by growing industries, has made the country an attractive investment destination for multinationals across various sectors, including manufacturing, infrastructure, and services.

Digital Revolution 

Furthermore, India’s ongoing digital transformation is expected to revolutionise e-commerce, ushering in a new era for the retail consumer market over the next decade. Leading global tech and e-commerce companies are flocking to the Indian market to be a part of this transformation.

Internet Access Boom 

By 2030, an estimated 1.1 billion Indians will have internet access, surpassing the number from 2020. The rapid growth of e-commerce and the adoption of 4G and 5G smartphone technology are set to empower home-grown companies, such as Mensa Brands, Delhivery, and BigBasket, whose e-commerce sales have surged during the pandemic.

FDI Keeps Flowing 

India’s robust foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, observed even during the challenging years of 2020-2022, is another testament to its economic potential. Investments from global tech giants like Google and Facebook, drawn by India’s vast and fast-growing consumer market, have played a significant role in bolstering India’s FDI figures.

Impact on the Indian Economy

  1. Global Economic Influence

India’s ascent to the second-largest economy in Asia signifies a shift in economic leadership. This newfound position enhances India’s global influence and trade partnerships, strengthening its economic stability.

  1. Domestic Market Expansion

The expanding economy shall lead to an increase in consumer spending. This, in turn, offers businesses a larger and more affluent domestic market, fostering growth and competition.

  1. Innovation and Technology

As India undergoes a digital transformation, it becomes a hub for technological innovation. This will likely create opportunities for tech companies, startups, and businesses to leverage India’s technological advancements.

  1. Infrastructure Development

Sustained economic growth supports infrastructure development. Improved infrastructure facilitates efficient supply chains, transportation, and logistics, benefiting businesses of all sizes.

In conclusion

India is poised to maintain its status as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies in the coming decade. This places the nation at the forefront of long-term growth opportunities, spanning various industries, from autos and electronics to banking, insurance, healthcare, and information technology. As the country’s economic ascent continues, India is primed to become the second-largest economy in Asia by 2030, trailing only the United States.

Source- moneycontrol.com


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